Hearts and minds

According to the poll's findings, 47 percent of Iraqis approve of attacks on American forces, but there were large differences among ethnic and religious groups. Among Sunni Muslims, 88 percent said they approved of the attacks. That approval was found among 41 percent of Shiite Muslims and 16 percent of Kurds.

The real question to me is the depth of this opinion. Do they approve of the attacks in abstract, or are they willing to offer shelter and assistance to the attackers? I'm sure some of that 47% falls into both opinions, but the breakdown of how many fall into the second category and how that number is trending is hugely significant.

With civilian cover, or worse, growing civilian assistance, the violence will become far worse and will come from unexpected areas. This is the same kind of scenario in which the US found itself in Vietnam. There is no way to "clear" an area of insurgents if the local population is hiding and supporting them.

Also, 41% among Shias? That's a huge rise.

(And, as a quick note, I don't know the methodology or accuracy of polling in Iraq so take the absolute numbers with some skepticism.)