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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Saturday, March 04, 2006

On the Russia-Iran nuclear deal

Just a quick question on the proposed Russian solution to Iranian nuclear enrichment.

One of the primary elements of this plan is that all enrichment and post processing would take place in Russia so that the Iranians wouldn't have the base from which to build nuclear weapons. But doesn't this also mean that enriched uranium would be transported, presumably overland through either a Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, or a Gerorgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan route not to mention travelling through troubled southern Russia and northern Iran?

Now, this material would not be enriched to weapons grade, so it couldn't be seized and immediately turned into a bomb, but it would be 70% or so enriched, and the waste coming out of Iran would be even more radioactive in significant amounts, ideal for use in multiple dirty bombs.

I guess they could send it by boat across the Caspian, but this just doesn't sound like a good idea to me either. Quite frankly, I would think the Iranian government actually having nuclear weapons would represent a smaller risk.

Just thinking out loud.

(The US-India deal is similar but it involves a smaller transhipment of radioactive materials, but that would largely be by sea.)

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