Coup plot in Iraq? Part III

Let's reexamine last night's stories, Engel's unsubstantiated claim of a coup plot, and the NYTimes emphasis on an arrest and bombing campaign. The stories this morning seem to favor the NYTimes version. Reuters:

"Coalition Force personnel detained an individual at the residence of Dr. Adnan al-Dulaimi in Baghdad September 29. The detained individual is suspected of involvement in the planning of a multi-vehicle suicide operation inside Baghdad's International Zone," the military said in a statement.

It said the man may have been linked to al Qaeda, and the plan might have been to use suicide vests to attack the Green Zone. U.S. forces did not enter Dulaimi's house, but searched a security trailer there and the suspect's car, it said.

Dulaimi is the leader of the Iraqi National Accordance front, the largest Sunni Muslim political bloc in parliament.

HOLY CRAP! Whether the coup claim is true or not, we have a major attack on the Green Zone, possibly Al Qaeda, being planned out of the top Sunni politician's house!!!!

The Shia response to this story will be massive, the implication being that all those bombings on civilians are tied directly to the Sunni political leadership. It offers confirmation to that widely held Shia belief and will be certain to engender a response.

How does Maliki practice the politics of reconciliation after this?

Also: AFP confirms with more detail

"The curfew was implemented on the advice of multinational forces to the prime minister because they felt violence would increase today," interior ministry spokesman Brigadier General Abdel Karim Khalaf told AFP Saturday.

A US military spokesman would not say why it had recommended a curfew but only that "intermittent curfews have been an effective means of reducing violence in the past"......

On Friday, US forces arrested a security guard of Adnan Dulaimi, a leading lawmaker and head of the main Sunni bloc in Iraq's parliament and fragile coalition government, the National Concord Front.

"The detained individual is suspected of involvement in the planning of a multi-vehicle suicide operation inside Baghdad's International Zone," a US military statement said, alleging the suspect was a member of al-Qaeda.

Dulaimi demanded the release of his guard,

So, AFP is reporting that the Total Curfew came specifically at the recommendation of the US? That runs counter to all earlier reporting of "complete surprise" and then "no comment" from the US. Is this true, or is the US offering after the fact cover?

(On the plus side, that's some pretty good intel development by the US from deep inside the Sunni structure.)

(And, I don't think Engel lied. I do believe that Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister did tell him of a disrupted coup plot. It is very plausible that this big attack in the green zone was intended to tie up US forces in a coup, or the Deputy PM could've been wrong. Neither the US or Maliki's gov't has an interest in the coup story gaining legs, so we may never know.)