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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Sunday, September 10, 2006

Iraqi parliament "suspends debate."

Sunni legislators boycotted the parliament yesterday in objection to the "federalism" bill currently under consideration which would allow the functional breakup of Iraq into three factional "superprovinces." The Sunnis object in part because it would cut them out of the oil revenues.

But what's really interesting in this article,
The Iraqi National List of the former secular Prime Minister Ayad Alawi, and the group headed by radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr joined the Sunni parties in boycotting the session.

The federalism bill was proposed by Sadr's Shiite rivals SCIRI. SCIRI, closely tied to Iran, currently holds the majority of political posts throughout the Shia south, but if elections were held today, Sadr's group would probably take control. (That's what the huge Diwaniyah fight was about.)

I don't know the details on the SCIRI proposed bill, but if Sadr is siding on the issue with the Sunnis against SCIRI and Maliki, it probably institutionalizes SCIRI power.

2 Comments:

  • The Sunnis object in part because it would cut them out of the oil revenues.

    This has been a big part of the post-invasion problem all along. I don't see how federalism is going to help it.

    By Blogger abi, at 11:47 AM  

  • Yeah. There have been statements by mainstream Sunni politicians that they would encourage "any means" of resistance to prevent this plan.

    Also, the Sadr/SCIRI split is significant because if the oil contracts were done now with SCIRI in control of the provinces, they could send the patronage to their people.

    BUT, most consensus seems to be that if elections were held today that ASadr would take most of the posts. So, Sadr has an interest in fighting this as well.

    The spoils are big money for your organization changing the relative footing as the politics go forward.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 11:58 AM  

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