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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Friday, March 16, 2007

Iraqis are told to sit back down and the strategic goal of "the surge."

The evidence seems to be that the "surge" plan is to sideline the Iraqi military, or at least stop waiting for them to "stand up."
The report shows that Iraqi military units began assuming greater responsibility for operations in the earlier part of last year. But the trend has reversed. In October, U.S. forces were conducting 8% of the combat operations, while 72% were joint missions. By January, U.S. units were conducting 33% of the operations, and the percentage of joint operations had fallen to 59%.

The tactical goal is clearly to move US forces out of their larger bases into 100 distributed neighborhood bases, but I think the key to understanding the broader strategic goal of "the surge" is the descriptive talking point "breathing space."

The underlying premise seems to be that the Iraqis were simply overwhelmed, and that given a slight lessening of the violence, the Iraqis will be able to regain control militarily and enact political reconciliations.

But that seems premised on the belief that the Iraqi goals are the same as the US goals.

What evidence is there that the Iraqi factional and political leaders want to put a quick peace above their own longer term political struggles?

If, for instance, the Shia are "winning" in the current situation, why would they want to offer the Sunnis anything? If the Sunnis see their attacks as their best option to extort a share of power, how does a US military presence alter that?

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