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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Friday, March 16, 2007

Musharraf wobbles

Pay attention to Pakistan. Musharraf recently removed (arrested?) their chief judge, but the removal is serving as a focal point for the pent up tensions in the country.

The protests are growing as is the government response.
Witnesses at the scene said that the police used tear gas, rubber bullets and baton charges in an attempt to disperse the crowd, and that they arrested numerous opposition leaders. The Pakistani media reported that perhaps dozens of opposition members also had been detained in advance of the rally.

Among those reportedly detained were a former president of Pakistan, Rafiq Tarar; Qazi Hussain Ahmad, chief of the Mutahidda Majlis-e-Amal, a coalition of Islamic parties; and members of the parties of former prime ministers Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto.....

The government also made moves to suppress media coverage of the controversy. The regulatory agency that governs broadcasting blocked a television news show hosted by journalist Kamran Khan on the private Geo network Thursday night....

Late in the day, police ransacked Geo TV's Islamabad offices.

(I've seen two speculated reasons for the removal. 1) that Chaudhry was going to strip Musharraf of his military title , and 2) that Chaudhry was looking into "the disappeared" which might lead to uncomfortable revelations about US involvement in renditions.)

2 Comments:

  • I very concerned about Pakistan. If our strongman is deposed, who takes over? The modernist, democratic leaning class, or the Islamist theocrats?

    Will tomorrow's Pakistan become yesterday's Afghanistan: the de facto home base of Islamic-based international terrorists? Or has that day already come?

    I'm all questions and no answers.

    By Blogger -epm, at 11:25 AM  

  • I don't really have a sense of how wobbly Musharraf is. There's obviously broad dislike, but Pakistan is actally several countries.

    There's the Islamic West, a desperately poor rural community, and a very urbanized, much more educated community. That's one of the reasons this "lawyer protest" is significant to me.

    And, I don't know what comes after. I don't think it's the Taleban because I don't think they could impose that kind of order on the cities.

    If I were making an off the cuff guess, I would expect wither another strongman, or maybe a Sunni version of Iran circa 1982.

    And, no matter who would take control, they would not have the pull to go into the tribal areas. That's too big a battl;e for a new leader.

    So, yeah, it would be a safe haven so long as the Pashtun population wants it to be.

    Does the US then try to extend into those tribal areas? Against a nuclear armed Pakistan's wishes?

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 11:48 AM  

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