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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Sunday, May 20, 2007

Sadr makes his move

The Washington Post has a big front page article about Sadr's recent political shift towards Iraqi nationalism. Although I would argue that this shift is not as absolute as the Post portrays it, it does represent a broad effort on his part to reach across the IED strewn aisle to establish himself as the alternative candidate to Maliki's tarnished government.

This has been going on for at least six months and was made most public when Sadr withdrew his ministers to remove his movement from any association with the current government and the Americans.

The interesting thing to me is the apparent traction Sadr's efforts are having, and the ripple effects flowing from it. Probably most notable were the recent SCIRI "reforms" enacted in an apparent effort to show distance with Iran, but also, as significantly, to react to the resonance of Sadr's new message and stance.

Sadr appears to be trying to set up a constituency for an alternative power structure to the current government. At this point, it's unclear whether this is designed to actively replace the Maliki government, or to simply "be available" as the alternative when Maliki falls. (I don't think Sadr wants power until after the US leaves, because dealing with the US would hobble his nationalist stance.)

(Regarding the absolutism of this shift. The level of control Sadr directly exercises over the Mahdi is never quite clear. Some elements of Mahdi (splinters?) are receiving direct support and orders from Iran. Also, what about the Mahdi clashes with Iraqi forces and SCIRI (SIIC) security forces in the south?)

Make no mistake, though, this broad turning of the Sadr ship really does represent a significant effort towards power.

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