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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Monday, June 04, 2007

But this time, Cheney and the hawks are leaving footprints

Over the weekend, stories were coming out that Dick Cheney and the collective neocon hawks have repeatedly worked to undermine US policies.

There was the leak on Friday ahead of the Putin meeting which amplified a small speech by a third tier official to a front page NYTimes story.

On Friday night, we got another front page NYTimes story which contained complaints from the State Department that David Wurmser, one of Cheney's hawkish allies, was running around trying to undermine support for diplomacy with Iran.

Then, on Saturday, there was a look back at the neocons in the Defense Department who attempted to undermine US policy on China back when Colin Powell was Secretary of State.

I offer this roundup not only as catchup for non-weekend readers, but also as a bit of an evidentiary preface for this:

Front page WaPo story on Sunday.
Iran has increased arms shipments to both Iraq's Shiite extremists and Afghanistan's Taliban in recent weeks in an apparent attempt to pressure American and other Western troops operating in its two strategic neighbors, according to senior U.S. and European officials.

Sounds unequivocal, right? But wait buried in the wires....
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Monday the United States has no evidence Iran's government is behind a flow of weapons from Iran to Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan.....

"We do not have any information about whether the government of Iran is supporting this, is behind it, or whether it is smuggling, or exactly what is behind it."

"But there clearly is evidence that some weapons are coming into Afghanistan destined for the Taliban, but perhaps also for criminal elements involved in the drug trafficking coming from Iran," he said.

But you see, that is exactly the difference. While Condoleeza Rice and Robert Gates are relating facts, Dick Cheney's cadre is conducting a campaign. The hawks' strategically leaked allegations get huge, above the fold placements, while Condi Rice's and Robert Gates' factual rebuttals are buried on the wires.

And, as a final tie in on Iran-Taleban, from Newsweek:
And NEWSWEEK has learned that the veep's team seems eager to build a case that Iran is targeting Americans not just in Iraq but along the border of its other neighbor, Afghanistan.

In the last few weeks, Cheney's staff have unexpectedly become more active participants in an interagency group that steers policy on Afghanistan, according to an official familiar with the internal deliberations. During weekly meetings of the committee, known as the Afghanistan Interagency Operating Group, Cheney staffers have been intensely interested in a single issue: recent intelligence reports alleging that Iran is supplying weapons to Afghanistan's resurgent Islamist militia, the Taliban, according to two administration officials who asked for anonymity when discussing internal meetings.

So, over the coming week, as you read the breathless revelations that Iran is arming the Taleban, keep in mind what's really going on. Cheney's team is engaging in another Iraq-like "information" campaign to force associations that aren't there.

(Sorry for the long post, but this is important.)

5 Comments:

  • On of the points that is often overlooked, especially with regards to Iraq, is that there is a huge black market for weapons and bombs.

    Capitalist theory and reality dictates that the more industrialized country of Iran would be a net provider of these things as demand soars. Individuals and non-government entities will provide Iraqis with weapons and bombs due to purely market driven forces.

    Certainly weapons and bombs are coming from Iran. The real question that needs to be answered is, "who is actually sending them."

    By Blogger Praguetwin, at 7:46 AM  

  • Exactly. That's a key point.

    It's certainly possible that the Iranian government might be doing this. It would go against their historical animosity towards the Taleban, and their likely future interests as those weapons would eventually be used against them, but, it could also make sense that they want to do to the US in Afghanistan what the US did to the Soviets.

    But that would involve the Iranians arming up what could soon be their enemies.

    But, I would tend to believe it's a combination of loose Iranian arms from previous and arms flowing in through the black market.

    Besides, the Iranian intelligence services are pretty good. I find it doubtful that if they were doing this, that they wouldn't use cutouts and cover their tracks.

    It's not like Shia Iraq where an appearance of supporting the militias will help Iran later.

    The Taleban/Al Qaeda will always view the Iranians as apostates.

    So, I'm all over the place on this.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 8:03 AM  

  • Probably a combination of both. I can see the security forces helping the Shia in Iraq: that is obvious. But tacit support for the Taleban really seems like a stretch.

    The thing we should remember is that Iran's government and security forces are so fractured at this point that what Iran is officially doing is about as all over the place as our opinions on what is going are.

    By Blogger Praguetwin, at 1:04 AM  

  • That's a good point.

    The American mind tends to think in simplistic terms good/evil leader. If it's happening, it must be controlled because the entire nation of 70 million is actually one giant hive mind.

    As an example of complexity that broke public, Iran Contra in the US would be a good example.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 7:30 AM  

  • Iran/Contra. Bingo. I'd almost forgotten.

    As you point out, the biggest shortcoming in our understanding of Iran is the idea that there are 70 million people and a government that is all being controlled from the top. If true, beheading the monster would solve our problems. Unfortunately, we both know that destroying the leadership will only further fragment the opposition.

    What was that Greek mythological character that grew two heads every time one was cut off?

    By Blogger Praguetwin, at 4:01 PM  

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