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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Sadr freezes Mahdi Army

Very early, so it's not clear exactly what this means, but this could be a huge development.
Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has ordered a six-month suspension of activities by his Mahdi Army militia in order to reorganize the force, an aide said Wednesday....

"We declare the freezing of the Mahdi Army without exception in order to rehabilitate it in a way that will safeguard its ideological image within a maximum period of six months starting from the day this statement is issued," al-Araji said, reading from a statement by al-Sadr.

Trying to read between these early lines, it sounds like Sadr is ordering his militia to stand down, meaning that any units or subgroups still engaging in activity would be subject to US/Iraqi attack without his political protection.

Certainly, this is his response to the violence in Karbala that led to the "evacuation" of the religious festival. This is the "ideological image" that he is trying to "safeguard."

I find it hard to believe he will not use his militia lever for six full months, but in the interim, there is a window. (Is he ceding the status quo in Basra and southern Iraq to the SIIC?)

It is important to note that he is not disarming his militia. This is a political response to a perception of the militia being out of control.

Related: This takes place as Mahdi elements attack SIIC offices and mosques in Khadamiyah, Qahira, Habibiyah, Amil, and Husseiniyah, all around Baghdad. Many dead and wounded.

(The intraShia violence in Basra is now getting a little more coverage, but I rarely see a breakdown of who controls what among the Shia groups. As a loose rule of thumb, SIIC has majority control of Basra, Karbala, and many of the other traditional Shia power centers whereas Sadr's group flourishes in the more mixed areas where Shia were traditionally poorer and more oppressed. Mahdi is the main presence in Baghdad and surrounding areas.)

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