Let's all calm down....
Yes, Huckabee is surging in the polls, but even if this rush of enthusiasm (for a candidate as yet undefined) were to last, he has no money or organization to properly exploit this momentum.
There are less than two months until the nominees are likely decided, and right now he's competing in two states. Two months is not much time to raise money, build the databases, and set up local organizations for 1/3 of the country.
Plus, the more he's in the public view, the more his "christian" positions will cost him.
On the Dem side, "Clinton is stalling" seems to be the mantra.
Most surprisingly to me is that, after all this, I don't have a strong preference for either Clinton or Obama.
There are less than two months until the nominees are likely decided, and right now he's competing in two states. Two months is not much time to raise money, build the databases, and set up local organizations for 1/3 of the country.
Plus, the more he's in the public view, the more his "christian" positions will cost him.
On the Dem side, "Clinton is stalling" seems to be the mantra.
Most surprisingly to me is that, after all this, I don't have a strong preference for either Clinton or Obama.
posted by mikevotes at
1:43 PM
7 Comments:
Shifting in the lower ranks, but I still don't see anyone breaking into the Clinton, Giuliani lock down.
By
Praguetwin, at 3:58 PM
If Obama pulls upsets in Iowa and/or NH, will we see the Clinton camp go Rovian in SC and Feb 5, a la the Bush 2000 campaign? I think we've seen their willingness to go low-ball already. I wonder how rough and tumble it will get if the "inevitable" candidate start looking less so in actual elections?
Of course, the GOP has gone whisper and innuendo already...
By
-epm, at 5:33 PM
Praguetwin, on the Dem side, it will all come down to how well the Obama camp can get new caucusgoers out, and if he wins Iowa, we've suddenly got a real game.
(Plus, if he stays tight through SC, you figure Edwards will drop out, and you gotta figure the Edwards voters will lean strongly towards Obama.)
On the Repub side, Giuliani will have to persevere until Fla, and he's going to take hits along the way. If he gets blasted in Iowa, it will really shoot at his middle America credentials.
Both Clinton and Giuliani still hold top, but their position is getting shaky.
.....
EPM,I don't doubt that, but I wonder what they bring to kill the momentum?
By
mikevotes, at 6:27 PM
it seems everyone is just assuming edwards will do poorly. why?
By
Anonymous, at 6:55 PM
I'm making that assumption because I expect the caucuses to be overflowing with new people. Edwards scores well with the 2004 caucus goers, but my guess is that he won't pull that many new people to the caucuses.
Plus, I think a chunk of his support is anti-Clinton, and when it gets close, that anti-Clinton support will go where it will be most effective and if it looks like Obama has a closer shot, he'll pick up some of those ant-Clinton voters.
On the pro Edwards side, the caucuses with their arcane rules tend to give more slightly more weight to rural and small towns, and he generally does better there.
That's just a quick response.
By
mikevotes, at 9:01 PM
I think it says a lot that the two GOP * frontrunners * are in the low 20's of support nationally. That's pretty lousy. The latest NYT poll puts Giuliani at 41% * among Republicans *, which is hardly enthuiastic support, and he's in front. Huckabee is third at 30% among Republicans. Somebody's going to get the nomination, of course, but right now it looks like they'll get it with reluctance.
I don't see a GOP split, but I can easily see a low turnout on their side, and quite a few very nervous Republicans in the House and Senate of those that remain in office.
It's a coin toss as to whether we will be looking at a centrist GOP in 2009 or an extreme-right GOP in 2009.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 9:58 PM
It's funny, I can make a stronger case why all of them might lose the nomination than win it.
That's why I keep saying, "somebody has to win" to remind myself that someone will muddle through.
Take a look at the "Somebody has to win" post above which has a li9nk to the latest NYTimes CBSpolling.
It nails your point exactly.
By
mikevotes, at 7:41 AM
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