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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Sunday, April 20, 2008

Expectation setting in Pa and other Political bits

As far as I can tell, the media has set the over/under for Clinton in Pa at +10. The Clinton camp seems to be trying to lower that bar, speaking of "narrow wins" and emphasizing the spending differences.
Seeking to play down expectations of a big Clinton victory once polls close at 8 p.m. on Tuesday, advisers said they expected a narrow win and said if Obama loses, it would not bode well for a general election if he were the nominee.

"If Sen. Obama is unable to win here with his enormous spending advantage ...

Meanwhile, the Obama camp seems pretty happy with that +10, (ChicagoSun-Times) Obama would call single-digit Pa. loss a victory.

Taking the polling at face value, it would appear that the difference will be less than that +10, however, I would point to the fairly large numbers of undecideds (roughly 10%) in almost all the polling.

Political bits: The New Republic has a very flattering piece on Obama campaign manager David Plouffe, crediting him with the Iowa win, evincing higher delegate counts by working the state maps, and coming out of Super Tuesday well ahead on money.

And, Richard Mellon Scaife's paper in Pittsburgh, the same Scaife that led the impeachment movement and accused Clinton of murdering Vince Foster, endorses Hillary Clinton.

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