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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Monday, April 07, 2008

Political bits

(NYTimes) In Superdelegate Count, Tough Math for Clinton.
Even if Mrs. Clinton narrows Mr. Obama’s delegate lead to 100, and if no further superdelegates make commitments through the end of the primaries, she’d wake up June 4 needing to win over two-thirds of the still-uncommitted superdelegates.

(I would reiterate again, that number is actually far higher as the "add-on" delegates, 69 of the 330 remaining, are expected to break at least 50-50 or more towards Obama.)

(CNN) Poll of polls shows race tightening in Pa. (Generally, "poll of polls" is not a great measure, because it includes ridiculous outliers, but I think Clinton+7 or +8 is about where we are.)

(WaPo) A "popular vote" breakdown.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has a 421,000 vote lead over Sen. Barack Obama among registered Democrats in the votes conducted so far. Obama more than makes up for that deficit with an 860,000-vote margin among independent voters and a 130,000-vote edge among Republicans who have participated in Democratic contests. Obama's overall popular vote lead stands at 791,879 votes, or 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent. (The totals omit a handful of states that don't release their caucus vote counts.)

(I think it's important to note that the press is not including Fla and Mich in their totals. The Clinton camp needs them to do so.)

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