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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Saturday, May 24, 2008

McCain's problems

The NYTimes has a story out on the GOP establishment's worries about chaos in the McCain campaign.

Think about where McCain is. He's someone who had always assumed he would run as a reformer/outsider, as an agent of "change," who now finds himself facing Obama, saddled with lobbyist problems and the most unpopular president in modern history.

His plan was to run from the right into the middle, but no matter how hard he tries, he will have to constantly throw breadcrumbs to the right on religious/social issues, immigration, taxes, etc. He will always be harnessed with the need to feed his right wing.

His fundraising gaps may be managed by big donors pouring money into the RNC and 527's, but I still am not seeing any real grass roots push, any group that is wedded to the dream of a McCain presidency. Without that, where does he get volunteers?

Last, this is not a man who has been tremendously successful headlining big campaigns. He was kneecapped and collapsed in 2000. In 2007, he created a campaign structure that collapsed under its own weight, and now he's trying this very dubious model of ten autonomous regional directors with local control of money, advertising, organization, and to some degree, message.

And all of this doesn't even mention the underlying "passion gap" of the political landscape this year which will likely drive Dems to the polls at much higher rates.

There're a bunch of challenges facing McCain. I just think that needs to be out there.

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