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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

The difference between "undecided" and "undeclared" and why many superdelegates must be growing to hate Hillary Clinton.

At this point in the process, I find it nearly impossible to believe there are that many "undecided" superdelegates left. For the most part, what we have left are superdelegates who have decided between Obama and Clinton, but, for political reasons of their own, have chosen not to publicly declare their intent.

Many of those who have not declared, have not done so because they face a tight reelection or fundraising fight, or, in the case of some of the national or state party figures, see a potential complication of their position or effectiveness were they to pick a side.

The bottom line is that there are many superdelegates who don't want to publicly pick a side in this heated contest even though their minds are already made up. They are just hoping this conflict will go away without them having to pay any cost.

But what's really weird, if you think about it, is that both campaigns have been courting these supers, talking to them in various forms and various voices for at least three months. These campaigns with their superdelegate shops and counters must must have a very good sense within five or ten what the final superdelegate count and distribution will likely be.

So, barring something incredible forcing a surge one way or the other, both campaigns know, they already know, how the final numbers will look, and yet it still goes on.

This is the vacuum in which the Hillary Clinton campaign survives for now. They know that many of these remaining superdelegates will not come forward until forced and are claiming this reticence as indecision, a space in which to continue their campaign, a campaign they almost certainly know they have already lost.

Her campaign subsists on these superdelegates' fears of endangering their own political futures.

So, how do you think those undeclared superdelegates feel about all this? Their hope is to get through all this mess without publicly declaring, to come out the other side without angering anyone, and yet the Clinton campaign goes on, likely forcing them into that public declaration that they have been so long avoiding. This could cost them their seat, job, or office.

How do you think they will feel about Hillary Clinton if she makes them pay that cost?

There are still some 165 elected and DNC superdelegates undeclared.

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