My take on the Powell endorsement.
I don't buy the premise that a Colin Powell endorsement will bring many voters. However, it does have influence.
The top line CW setters in Washington take what Colin Powell says very, very, very seriously. Thus, the Powell endorsement affects these powerful opinion setters which then affects the coverage of the race.
As careful as he is, Colin Powell going on MTP and making these statements, will have an effect. It will affect how the media views the race, and how they frame the McCain campaign's tactics. (at least for awhile.)
(And, I do believe that the Obama campaign's goal this weekend is to create a narrative of inevitability to get the media to call the race over. (HUGE rallies, unheard of money, Powell endorsement, game over.))
(PS. Limbaugh is the first jackass to say it's only about race.)
The top line CW setters in Washington take what Colin Powell says very, very, very seriously. Thus, the Powell endorsement affects these powerful opinion setters which then affects the coverage of the race.
As careful as he is, Colin Powell going on MTP and making these statements, will have an effect. It will affect how the media views the race, and how they frame the McCain campaign's tactics. (at least for awhile.)
(And, I do believe that the Obama campaign's goal this weekend is to create a narrative of inevitability to get the media to call the race over. (HUGE rallies, unheard of money, Powell endorsement, game over.))
(PS. Limbaugh is the first jackass to say it's only about race.)
posted by mikevotes at
2:05 PM
7 Comments:
I have not heard a sane scenario from Republicans in weeks as to how McCain can make a comeback.
It's always a belief that whatever issue McCain is pushing at the moment will be the one that really breaks it open for him. Or else it is a belief that the Bradley Effect will be 23%, all pollsters are conspiring, or something stupid along those lines.
If this was a traditional "battleground" scenario between FL and OH, then maybe McCain could get lucky. But it's not.
Palin seems to be increasing Obama's margins everywhere she goes. CA went from O +16 to +24 after her last visit there, and that's just one example.
You can't suppress 5% of the vote anywhere. 2% at most. And you would have to do it in seven states, at least - not in two like last time.
It's over.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 6:28 PM
The significance of a (former) cabinet member of the incumbent administration endorsing the opposition candidate should not be under estimated... for many of the reasons Mike outlines.
By
-epm, at 8:24 PM
The only real scenario is that he somehow, magically makes up 6 points in the polls and then goes a perfect 9 for 9 in the closest states, so, not really sane.
It's outside possible that McCain might gain whatever in the polls, but the likelihood of then winning that whole stretch without a loss is near impossible, too.
(I would however expect the GOP to quietly keep the "Bradley effect" discussion going as long as they can because it allows them the illusion of being viable. )
And, I agree fully on the voter supression angle, too.
....
EPM, Again, I'm not really sure if a Powell endorsement directly swings any voters, but look at the way the heads have gone gaga over it to get some sense of what he means in their world.
By
mikevotes, at 10:27 PM
Well maybe not swinging votes but lets say it help inoculate the weak Obama supporters form character attacks from Palin/(mccain) and the GOP.
More importantly is what affect Powell's public discomfort with the new-republican brand may have on the GOP moving forward. There's clearly a schism within the GOP: traditional conservatism vs. neo-con and christianist-nationalists. The chasm in this schism is much wider than the well reported and commented schism in the Dems with DLC/Clintonist vs the Dean/Obamians. However, it's not clear to me that the different sides of the wield comparable sway within the party apparatchik. The trad-conservatives may be in a more esteemed position among intellectuals and the beltway, but the neo-con/christianist-nationalists are riding their own grass roots wave of support right now.
By
-epm, at 8:30 AM
But, again, I think that comes largely through the secondary press more than Powell himself.
As to your second point, definitely. And thinking about it, as sharp as he is about such things, part of his goal in that appearance may have been to exacerbate that "heart of the GOP" battle before the election.
Fighting over that makes them look even more like losing.
(I may grab your comment, paraphrase, and put it up later as a post. I need to chew on it a little bit.)
By
mikevotes, at 8:52 AM
"But, again, I think that comes largely through the secondary press more than Powell himself."
Oh, definitely. Not argument there. Those who could be influenced by a Powell endorsement at this point are not MTP viewers. They are getting their information through secondary sources.
But one has to cite Powell -- give him credit/blame -- for striking the match. To legitimize the discussion of such things... Moving the "divided GOP" story from anecdote and opinion to analysis and observation.
By
-epm, at 9:39 AM
Right. Well, and he also is saying to Republicans, "They're the reason I'm going."
By
mikevotes, at 10:58 AM
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