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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Saturday, November 29, 2008

It's not 3 AM yet, but.......

Pakistan warned that it would redeploy troops involved in the terrorism fight on its border with Afghanistan to its frontier with India in response to any Indian troop movements.

"Tension with India is mounting. The situation is very critical, and the next 48 hours are very crucial," a senior Pakistani official said on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation. He said Pakistan had put its air force and navy on high alert. "In case of any Indian aggression, Pakistan will respond to it in a matching way," he said.


I'm not sure whether to take this as literal, strategic or diplomatic.

Literal: The Pakistanis are genuinely worried about an armed Indian response.

Strategic: The Pakistanis would love an excuse to move their troops out of the tribal lands along the Afghan border. This could be their way out of their side of the US war.

Diplomatic: An effort to pressure the US to pressure India. A reminder to the US of Pakistan's "vital role" in fighting the Taleban and Al Qaeda. A warning not to tilt too far.

I think the bottom two are the more likely.

Also, let me say this is a speculative post. There're alot of suspicions floating around at this point, but very little fact.

The British Telegraph claims to be privy to some of the interrogation details, Kashmiri independence fighters, trained in camps in Pakistan.

And, where's China in all this? They don't want instability in their backyard, but India's also a regional rival. Where are they pushing?

Later: A BBC writer makes an assertion that the ISI intel chief canceling his support trip to India represents a slap at civilian control of the ISI and military.

2 Comments:

  • This feels like an al Qaeda type of attack: small groups, well planned, trained operatives, multiple targets, maximum impact. And it has the affect of causing international chaos with no other real strategic purpose.

    I think this is Al Qaeda throwing a bone into a pen of hungry dogs. Than waiting to take advantage of the ensuing chaos.

    By Blogger -epm, at 7:57 AM  

  • I don't think it is formal Al Qaeda, although the delineations between all the groups really isn't that clear.

    And, I think there are a number of possible strategic goals. If it's Kashmiri, it moves Kashmir back to the top of the list, especially with a new US administration coming in.

    Also, this does offer a pretext for the Pakistani government to pull back in the western tribal lands, and there are many, many groups who want that to happen, Taleban, tribal leaders, Al Qaeda proper, elements of the military and ISI.

    My hunch, again, is that it's Kashmiri separatist, though. They've been the ones conducting most of the past attacks in India.

    (Although there may be intersections with other groups on the training and logistics.)

    BUT, again, we just don't know enough at this point to really say, and jumping to conclusions leads to bad places. The Indians will find out.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 10:05 AM  

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