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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Pakistan complains more loudly

After another US missile strike deeper in Pakistan, the Pakistani government summons the ambassador to carry a message back to Washington.

Also, many of the tribal/Taleban leaders in the FATA are threatening to quit the ceasefire with the Pakistani government.

The question that's not really being answered is who is the US hitting in these missile strikes. Are the value of the targets worth the cost/benefit of the blowback?

3 Comments:

  • The entire model for the GWOT has been that there is a fixed number of "bad guys" and that the line between "good guys" and "bad guys" is blindingly clear.
    Thus, if there are 2000 "bad guys" and a missile strike kills 10, we now only have 1990 "bad guys left", so it's worth killing a dozen civilians in the process.

    We aren't fighting a conventional war, however. Killing a dozen civilians could very well recruit two dozen more "bad guys". And that lie between "good guys" and "bad guys" is extremely hazy.

    It's as stupid as bombing an entire neighbourhood to kill one crack dealer and then pretending that someone else won't just take that dealer's place the next day. Meanwhile, you now have an entire neighbourhood displaced and in need of quick cash.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 8:58 AM  

  • I look at the history of conflict in Northern Ireland for corollaries. After the Bloody Sunday shootings in 1972 more IRA recruits joined than the Provos could have ever hoped for at that time.

    By Blogger matt, at 10:27 AM  

  • Todd, I get your point, and tend to agree with it, especially in a sustained bombing campaign, but, as a one off, there can be disruptive kills.

    That's not what they're doing now, this sustained campaign is creating ill will and recruits, but in theory, limited strikes could have effect. The thing is, to make it worth it, you pretty much have to sweep about 3 or 4 layers of top leadership at once, and that's not what we're doing.

    ....

    Matt, as I said above, right.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 1:27 PM  

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